Annual energy spend
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World events 2000–2026: financial crisis · 2021 supply shock · Russia–Ukraine war · Middle East conflict. A major energy price shock roughly every 4 years. The 7.04% figure assumes none of them.
Method: 9.8% = compound annual change in the Ofgem price cap, April 2021 (£1,138) to July 2026 (£1,862), like-for-like usage basis. 12.5% models the same trajectory plus one further 2022-scale shock.
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